the gold standard
By Jacob Goldberg

electoral urgency

It has become a cliché that Israel's electoral system needs badly an overall reform. But, a series of facts resulting from the March 28 elections makes such a reform nothing less than a real urgency.

Before even going into the results of the elections, one is struck by the inherent instability of the political system. These were the forth elections in less than seven years, or the fifth elections in less than ten years! One used to speak about the “Italianization” of the Israeli system; not any more. The last government of Prime Minister Berlusconi survived its full five-year term. The unpredictable has occurred: Israel has become worse than Italy.

31 lists ran in the elections, no mere “achievement” for a small country of only seven million people, especially when compared to the two parties of the US, with almost 300 million people. But the more telling fact is that as many as twelve parties did make it into the Knesset, which signifies a further fragmentation of the Israeli parliamentary system. It also means that with 19 parties not entering the Knesset, the 2% threshold rendered almost one quarter of a million ballots into “lost” votes!

It has been consistently argued that, in order to reduce the number of parties, the 2% threshold had to be raised to 5% (Germany being the model). However, a close examination of the breakdown of seats in the new Knesset proves that even a 5% threshold would still leave ten parties in the Knesset, given that no less than seven parties number between six to twelve members.

The worst part of the fragmentation is that the largest party, Kadima, won only 29 seats, less than 25% of the Knesset, making the incoming Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, more dependent than ever on several smaller parties in order to form a ruling coalition. Here again, another precedent was set: not only do Kadima and Labor (with 19 seats) have far less than a 61-majority, even if the third largest party, Shas (12 seats), joins the coalition, the three together will still not muster a majority! Thus, it would take at least five parties to form a coalition in order for the government to be even minimally viable.

In search of the elusive majority, Ehud Olmert is surely reminded of US presidential candidate Adlai Stevenson. When he ran against President Eisenhower in 1956 and was worried about his victory, his aides assured him that “you need not worry as every decent American will vote for you;” to which Stevenson responded: “I know that; but the problem is that I need a majority…”

It is against this backdrop that one can understand why some analysts predict new elections within 12-24 months. But, without sweeping reforms, new elections would most likely repeat the old pattern of fragmentation, arduous coalition-building and further instability and shaky governments.

What, then, are the needed reforms? Three main proposals are on the agenda.
First, there are those who call for doing away with the parliamentary system and adoption of the US presidential model. This would create a strong executive branch, elected directed by the people and relieved of the constant fear of a no-confidence vote by a fragmented parliament. But, others fear that a president who does not depend on the legislative might concentrate too much power in his hands and could potentially turn into a tyrant.

Second, there are those who argue for retaining the parliamentary system, but reforming the electoral model – replacing all three components of the existing party, nationwide, proportional elections, with a personal, regional, majority system, respectively. This was bound to eliminate small parties and create two or three major blocks (a la the US, Britain and Germany), making “governance” possible and ensuring a full, four-year life-expectancy of parliament and government. Others, however, fear that this reform would leave a large number of Israeli groups totally unrepresented in the system and is bound to create antagonism and alienation, endangering the delicate fabric of the society.

The third proposal seeks to respond to the latter concerns by creating a synthesis: half of the Knesset would be elected by the existing party, nationwide, proportional system, and the other half by a personal, regional, majority system. They expect this formula “to square the circle:” to create stable governments by giving the two big parties a large representation in the Knesset, on the one hand; but at the same time to keep other groups too represented in the Knesset.

Would the new government of Ehud Olmert succeed in enacting any reforms, something all its predecessors failed to do? One is tempted to answer by quoting the founding Prime Minister of Israel, David Ben-Gurion: “In Israel, if you don't believe in miracles, you are not realistic…”

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